Demand Forecasting

[NOTE: Readers should cross-reference this section with Environmental and Safety Issues]

Core References

Resetting Price Controls for Privatized Utilities: A Manual for Regulators
Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 1999, Chapters 5-8.
Green, Richard, and Martin Rodriguez Pardina

Describes forecasting of costs, investment, and revenue in a price review setting. Further describes how these forecasts are incorporated into present value calculations.

The Challenge of Demand Forecasting in Pro-poor Infrastructure Projects
Departments of Environmental Science and Engineering, University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, 2002.
Whittington, Dale

Examines approaches to demand forecasting, with particular attention to projects targeted for the poor.

Sectoral References

ELECTRICITY

Maryland Power Plants and the Environment: A review of the impacts of power plants and transmission lines on Maryland’s natural resources
December 2003, Appendix B: Determinants of Electricity Demand Growth in Maryland and Appendix C: State-Wide Forecast of Electricity Consumption and Peak Demands in Maryland.
Maryland Power Plant Research Program

Describes determinants of electricity growth, the principles of econometric forecasting of electricity demand, the effects of demographic features. Provides case study of a demand forecast for Maryland.

Demand Forecasting for Electricity
New Delhi, India: Tata Energy Research Institute, 2000.
Mehra M and A. Bharadwaj

Considers the need for good forecasting and summarizes existing methods, including trend analysis, end-use method, the econometric approach, and time series methods. Discusses hybrid approaches. Also considers load curves, effects of new technologies, and data needs.

TRANSPORTATION

Limited Project Finance: The Guide to Financing Transport Projects
Euromoney Books, 2000.
MacQuarie Corporate Finance

Provides an overview of project financing for transport projects. Among topics covered are: demand forecasting, the role of capital markets, debt and equity funding, risk identification and management, role of government and specialized agents. Special focus is given to developing nations and case studies are provided.

Forecasting the Demand for Privatizad Transport: What Economic Regulators Should Know and Why
Policy, Research Working Paper 2446, World Bank, Washington, D.C., 2000.
Lourdes, Trujillo, Emile Quinet, and Antonio Estache

Privatization brings new needs for demand forecasting. More attention is paid to risk under privatization, than when investments are publicly financed. And regulators must be able to judge traffic studies done by operators, and to learn what strategic behavior influenced these studies. Forecasting has long been a challenge, and will remain so for the foreseeable future. But the analytical instruments and data processing capabilities available through the latest technology, and software, allow much better forecasting than transport ministries, or regulatory agencies typically observe.

WATER

Setting water and sewerage price limits for 2005-10: Framework and Approach
Periodic Review 2004. March 2003.
OFWAT

Describes the process that Ofwat planned for its 2004 price review.

Key Words

Demand, Price, Price review, Forecast

Case Studies

Economic Principles and Concepts as Applied to Municipal Water Utilities
Final Report to the Ontario Superbuild Corporation (project number SSB-018197), 2002.
GeoEconomics Associates Inc.